Dutch pension funds can realise 40,000 new rental homes in the coming years

Insights 10 Feb 2025

Dutch pension funds have more than €12.7 billion available for investments in Dutch rental properties over the next three years. This is good news because it means they can add 13,000 new affordable (mainly mid-priced) rental homes to the stock each year. However, pension funds are still limited in their investments by an accumulation of regulations and excessively lengthy permit procedures. Housing associations want to invest more too, but are also experiencing bottlenecks in realising new social housing. Of international investors, 93% indicate that tax issues play a major role, which caused investments in new build to fall to a low point in 2024. In order to achieve the Dutch ambition of 100,000 homes per year and to prevent the housing shortage from rising to 450,000, every effort must be made to remove bottlenecks and actually start building more. This and more is evident from the annual survey entitled ‘Housing and residential investment market in the Netherlands’  [in Dutch: ‘De woning(beleggings)markt in beeld’] as conducted by Capital Value and ABF Research.

Housing shortage increases to 420,000 homes by 2026

According to ABF Research, the current housing shortage in the Netherlands amounts to 400,000 homes and will increase to 420,000 by 2026. This represents 5% of the Dutch housing stock. The peak of the housing shortage in 2026 is based on the assumption that 100,000 homes will be added annually from 2027. Thijs Konijnendijk: Director Research & Data Intelligence at Capital Value. “Every effort is being made to achieve this number, but in the current market, it is unclear whether 100,000 homes in 2027 is feasible. Insufficient numbers of permits are being issued, the construction time is often 2 to 3 years, and the question is whether there is sufficient capacity among builders. There is therefore a good chance that the housing shortage in the Netherlands will increase further in the coming years to 450,000 homes.”

Dutch residential investment market recovery to continue in 2025

The Dutch residential investment market visibly recovered in 2024. After a dip in 2022–2023, the transaction volume increased by 59% in 2024 to €6.8 billion. Investments by housing associations and institutional investors in new-build rental properties also increased significantly to €3 billion, an increase of 25% compared to 2023. It is remarkable that investments by foreign investors in new-build have fallen to a low point in 2024.

For 2025, the expectation is that the transaction volume will increase further and that institutional investors in particular will invest more in rental properties. Dutch pension funds have approximately €12.7 billion available for the next three years, which is considerably more than in previous years and good for around 40,000 homes in three years. The available capital is therefore more than sufficient to realise the ambition of 10,000 new rental homes annually.  In addition, private and international investors jointly have €6.1 billion available, bringing the total available capital to €18.8 billion. A large number of transactions are expected in the first six months of 2025.

To achieve the ambition of 100,000 homes per year, international investors are needed because they complement Dutch pension funds and housing associations. To make the Dutch market more attractive, foreign parties indicate that a lower transfer tax and more stability in government policy (both 93%) are necessary.

Impact investing  is increasing, but insufficient homes are built for growing group of elderly

Approximately 65% ​​of the available capital is intended for impact investing.  The focus here is particularly on affordable rental properties (mid-priced), sustainable projects and homes for specific target groups. Pension funds have approximately €8.3 billion (of the aforementioned €12.7 billion) available for this type of investments over the next three years. This is good news for the necessary addition of mid-range rental properties in the Netherlands. Investors surveyed indicate that the Affordable Rent Act should form the basis and that local regulations should be abolished to prevent an accumulation of regulations.

Notable in the current market is that the necessary investments in healthcare real estate and housing for the elderly are still lacking.  The construction costs of life-long homes are often higher than those of regular homes. Investors are often not prepared to pay more for this type of housing, while demand is enormous and the rental risk is very small. Thijs Konijnendijk: “It would be great if investors, developers and the government focused more on adding life-long homes in construction plans. There could be an important role for municipalities here to include this important target group more often in preliminary agreements and not only focus on affordability, especially now that the feasibility of plans is under pressure.”

Insufficient opportunities for housing associations to achieve ambitions

In 2024, housing associations made a significant contribution to the production of affordable housing in the Netherlands and will continue to acquire new-build projects in 2025. In the survey, they indicate that they see many bottlenecks in achieving the ambition of 30,000 homes per year, including slow permit issuance, limited availability of building plots, lending options and tax burden. In addition, some are not given permission to sell old property, even though there is still a huge sustainability challenge, with 52% indicating that by selling they can free up resources for new-build and sustainability. Due to the enormous increase in vacant values, the sale of an old home, especially in urban areas, offers the opportunity to build back two social rental homes, with the buyers often also taking on the sustainability aspects.

Arjan Peerboom, CEO at Capital Value: “The available capital held by pension funds can provide an enormous boost to the construction of mid-priced rental properties in the Netherlands. We really need to take advantage of the momentum in the market now. This can be done by speeding up permit procedures, increasing government capacity and putting an end to accumulated regulations. The Minister is already making an important contribution to this with the ‘Removal of Conflicting or Redundant Requirements and Regulations’ programme [in Dutch: Schrappen Tegenstrijdige en Overbodige Eisen en Regelgeving (STOER)]. Tax improvements for private and international investors and the abolition of restrictive regulations for housing associations can also provide a significant impetus to building more affordable rental properties in the coming years.”

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