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Transaction volume Dutch residential market: 2,1 billion in Q1

News 13 Apr 2026

The Dutch residential investment market has started 2026 strongly, recording the highest transaction volume in the first quarter since 2020. With €2.1 billion in transactions, of which €1.1 billion concerned new-build, the first-quarter figures indicate that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not yet materially affected market activity.

Institutional investors and housing associations both invested heavily in new-build, while private investors were the largest buyers of existing rental housing. At the same time, there are also concerns about the investment climate in 2026: the share of investments by international investors remains extremely low at 1.5%, and the market continues to be sensitive to economic shocks such as rising inflation and capital market interest rates. According to Capital Value, continued attention to the investment climate therefore remains essential if residential construction targets are to be achieved.

Strong new-build investment volume, investment capacity of housing associations under pressure

Investment volume in new-build in particular was strikingly high in the first quarter of 2026. Never before has €1.1 billion been invested in new-build in the first quarter. This volume was driven mainly by two very large transactions with a combined value of €500 million. These two transactions are in line with the trend seen in 2025, when Dutch institutional investors made very substantial acquisitions in the new-build market. However, the market share of housing associations in both the overall residential investment market and the new-build market is declining. Housing associations accounted for 16% of total transaction volume and 25% of investment volume in new-build rental housing. The latter share is below previous years: in 2025, housing associations represented 35% of new-build investment, and in 2024 as much as 48%. The question is therefore whether, given current construction and land prices, housing associations can continue to deliver sufficient new-build within the existing framework of their financial ratios.

Investment climate for international investors remains a cause for concern

Transaction volume in the Dutch residential investment market once again showed in the first quarter that the investment climate for international investors remains unattractive. The share of international investors reached no more than 1.5%. Only a very limited number of transactions involved an international investor. Since 2023, the sharp decline in the attractiveness of the Dutch residential market for international investors has been clearly visible in the transaction figures. This is the result of higher interest rates, restrictions on interest deductibility, higher transfer tax and various rent-regulating measures such as the Nijboer Act and the Affordable Rent Act.

Arjan Peerboom, CEO of Capital Value: “The absence of international investors in the Dutch market is a major loss. Without international investors investing in new-build rental housing, residential construction targets cannot be achieved. Making the investment climate more attractive through appropriate fiscal measures is therefore of great importance for the residential construction challenge and for reducing the housing shortage.

Residential investment market remains vulnerable to the effects of geopolitical instability

The recent developments in the Middle East are not yet visible in the transaction figures, but since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022 it has become clear how sensitive the residential investment market is to shocks in energy prices, inflation and capital market interest rates.

Thijs Konijnendijk, Director of Research & Data Intelligence at Capital Value, said: “On the developer side, the new-build market may be affected primarily by energy prices and inflation, as these drive up construction costs. On the investor side, rising interest rates are the key issue, as they increase the cost of capital and may also raise the required yield for investment in both new-build and existing housing. To prevent a decline in investment volumes, it is therefore essential that the Dutch Ministries of Housing and Spatial Planning and Finance introduce stimulus measures as quickly as possible. Market parties and government must do everything possible to build more rental housing in order to prevent a further contraction in supply.”

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